Markets Looking For Fed Day Preview From Powell
5 weeks ago, markets digested a very ho-hum Fed announcement and rate hike, eventually rallying to the prevailing range floor just under 3.40% in 10yr yields. A day and a half later, the 517k NFP number caused yields to blast off on a fantastically frustrating voyage up an over 4%.
Powell had a chance to comment on the NFP shocker a few days later and basically said “see! This is what we’re trying to warn you guys about!” He stopped short of saying the Fed should move back up to 50bp hikes or consider changing the well-established game plan of ‘a few more hikes, then hold.”
Since that post-NFP appearance, there have been several more data-driven rate spikes. Markets are anxious to see if the balance of that data is enough for Powell to sing a different tune, thus providing a valuable preview of the next Fed meeting in 2 weeks. The base case would be for him to bowl down the middle and leave it up to the forthcoming CPI and NFP numbers to determine the need for policy adjustments.